cheap ugg wellington boots
Come with your friends to visit our cheap ugg wellington boots store, you will find the one you like best .
To date, early voters have been primarily high propensity voters; strong partisans who know who they will vote for. In the coming week, the early voting volume will pick up substantially, and cheap ugg handbags suppliers we will see more of the lower to moderate propensity voters who are more persuadable enter the early electorate. In some of these close states, there is still time for the candidates to gain advantage though early voting as we reach the critical home stretch.
The data for this analysis can be found here, where I track the early vote in real time, as much as that is humanly possible. (The blog title is a wink to those who tell me they keep my website open during the day. Thank you to all the cheap ugg trainers well wishers!)Iowa continues to firm up as more votes come in, now with 423,586 voted. Registered Republicans have been making gains on Democrats during the early voting period in terms of party registration. But on Monday of this week Republicans peaked among absentee ballot requests, at 30.9 percent. By Thursday, their share of ballot requests dropped to 30.8 percent. The Democrats have been losing ground, too, starting the week at 44.9 percent and ending it at 44.0 percent. The gain is among those who do not registered with a party, something I discuss below.
Romney needs to make up more ground than he has among the early vote or have a great showing on Election Day in order to win Iowa. Obama won the state by 9.5 percentage points in 2008, when registered Democrats were 46.9 percent of early voters and Republicans were 28.9 percent. Closing the early voting gap by a couple of points is not enough, especially since the level of early voting will likely exceed 2008. A tidy comparison to 2008 is unfortunately impossible. In 2008, the state reported only in person voting without party registration. So, to infer something about the state of play in Nevada, we can examine the geographic distribution of support across counties, with the cheap emu ugg boots online Democratic stronghold of Clark home cheap ugg boots promo code of Las Vegas figuring most prominently.
So far in 2012, 263,782 Nevadans had voted in person. In 2008 for the same number of days prior to the election 199,412 Nevadans had voted early in person. In 2012, Clark County comprised 68.8 percent of those who had voted and in 2008 they were 68.4 percent. So, the geographic composition of the Nevada early electorate look similar to 2008, when Obama won the state by 12.2 percentage points. Over 1.1 million North Carolinians have voted, and registered Democrats are 50.3 percent of these voters while Republicans are 30.8 percent.